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Projection · Projection published July 2020

India’s population: the government projection

The Technical Group’s published projection series uses a Census 2011 base and assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. It supplies national and state/UT planning figures. This is the government series, with its own assumptions; no UN projection variant is used here.

Independent analysis · PopulationIndiaOfficial source · MoHFW / National Commission on Population
Reference periodSelected totals: 1 March 2026; series extends to 2036
Report publishedJuly 2020
Source checked11 October 2026

What this source tells us

Population size and age, sex and urban/rural composition under the report’s assumptions. Most large states use a cohort component method; some smaller units use other methods. State geography includes separate Andhra Pradesh/Telangana and Jammu & Kashmir/Ladakh, while Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu remain separate source rows.

Keep this distinction

A new enumeration, a continuously observed population, or an exact count for today. The July 2020 publication date remains part of the label even when the projected year is 2026. Source geographic units must be checked before comparison with Census 2011 or present administrative boundaries.

Selected figures, with their dates

Selected figures from Government projections with units and reference periods
Measure & unitPublished valueReference period & source
India: projected populationpeople1,42,59,08,0001 March 2026
Official source
Maharashtra: projected populationpeople12,93,08,0001 March 2026
Official source
Andhra Pradesh: projected populationpeople5,37,09,0001 March 2026
Official source
Telangana: projected populationpeople3,86,36,0001 March 2026
Official source
India: projected population at series endpointpeople1,52,22,88,0001 March 2036
Official source
India: projected population: definition & source note

Published as 14,25,908 thousand. Converted to persons; precision remains thousands. Equivalent to 142.5908 crore. This is a projection from the July 2020 report.

Table 8, India, 2026, Persons; printed page 44 / PDF page 50

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Maharashtra: projected population: definition & source note

Published as 1,29,308 thousand; converted to persons. A state example from the same series and reference date as the national figure.

Table 8, Maharashtra, 2026, Persons; printed page 49 / PDF page 55

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Andhra Pradesh: projected population: definition & source note

Published as 53,709 thousand; converted to persons. This Andhra Pradesh excludes Telangana. The report uses recast 2011 state populations; do not compare directly with undivided Andhra Pradesh’s 2011 total.

Table 8, Andhra Pradesh, 2026, Persons; printed page 49 / PDF page 55

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Telangana: projected population: definition & source note

Published as 38,636 thousand; converted to persons. Telangana is a separate projection geography, based on a recast 2011 population.

Table 8, Telangana, 2026, Persons; printed page 56 / PDF page 62

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India: projected population at series endpoint: definition & source note

Published as 15,22,288 thousand; converted to persons. A future projection under the same July 2020 assumptions, useful only with that label.

Table 8, India, 2036, Persons; printed page 44 / PDF page 50

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Reading the data

The 2026 total is a planning projection from a report published in July 2020. Its target year moves forward; the evidence base and assumptions do not automatically update with the calendar.

Read the selected state examples on the report’s own boundaries. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are separate here, while our Census 2011 directory preserves undivided Andhra Pradesh. A percentage change between those unmatched geographies would be misleading.

  • The original Table 8 reports values in thousands. Conversion to people preserves that precision; it does not produce a person-by-person count.
  • The 2036 value is a future projection under the same report’s assumptions. It is included as a labelled endpoint, not as observed growth.
  • UIDAI’s saturation report uses its own published projected-population denominator. Use that denominator to interpret its coverage percentage; do not silently substitute this national total.
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