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Interactive scenario · your assumptions

India market-sizing calculator.
Build a transparent scenario.

A transparent worksheet for population-based sizing. The source supplies the baseline; your assumptions determine the scenario.

Illustrative assumptions. Defaults demonstrate the calculation. They are not researched adoption, spending or market-share estimates. Replace them with evidence appropriate to your category.
01

Set the baseline

02

Define the opportunity

The age, need or segment share relevant to the category.
An assumption about category adoption, not an official population statistic.
Mean annual spend among category buyers, matching the buying unit. If your mean already includes non-buyers with zero spend, do not apply buyer penetration again.
The part you can reach with your geography, product and distribution.
A scenario assumption; it is not a sales forecast.
Calculated from your assumptions

The scenario, at a glance.

TAM · scenario category market——
SAM · serviceable scenario——
SOM · assumed obtainable scenario——
TAM
SAM
SOM

Bars share a zero-based scale. Very small shares can be difficult to see; the numeric results remain available above. Buyer equivalents use the same assumed annual spend across TAM, SAM and SOM.

The calculation

Population ÷ household size (only for households) × eligible share × category buyer share × annual category spend.

SAM = TAM × serviceable share.
SOM = SAM × assumed obtainable share.

Make the output useful to someone else.

Retain the buying unit, source date and every assumption. A city baseline from Census 2011 is still historical when used in this worksheet. A current-year state projection does not create a current city estimate. For a household scenario, the division by assumed household size is a separate modelled step.

Read the market-sizing guide Understand household units Browse government sources